Bueller? Bueller?

Anybody still with me after that lovely week of bets?

Every bettor has weeks like this and after how hot we had started it was only a matter of time until something like this happened. In order to be a winning sports bettor you need to win 53% of your bets. The best sports bettors in the world can hit at 56 or 57%. We were running at 68% which I have been saying was unsustainable so it was only a matter of time before regression hit us hard. Would I have rather had 5 weeks of 2 wins, 3 losses? Of course, but one thing I have learned in my many ventures into multiple facets of gambling is its all about the streak. We had a nice streak of steady winning with some big weeks in there and now hopefully we got the losing streak out of the way.

Tampa Bay +3.5 @ Tennessee - QB controversy in Tennessee? I think these teams are about even to be honest but the Titans may be overrated from their semi hot start and Tampa might still have some value as every time they get something going the schedule really hits them hard. Tampa is one of the youngest teams in the NFL, they have a young QB, and they missed the preseason camps etc that are vital to building that chemistry they seem to be lacking. Given that school of thought, the Bucs should start to gel, start to get that chemistry, and start to cover some spreads if not win outright as a dog a few times.

Detroit +6 vs Green Bay - I'm pretty sure this is my stubborn idiot gambler side that is all emotional decisions and has nothing to do with facts. Green Bay has to lose one right? I mean they have been flirting with losing the last few weeks (except for the one time i bet against them and gave the Vikings 14 obviously). Detroit can/does pressure the QB with that sick D-Line. Detroit can score with anybody and the Packers are looking vulnerable. Short week for the Packers going on the road in a big division game @ a hostile environment.

Dallas -7 vs Miami - The theme of this week is stubbornness. Yes I know Dallas is always overvalued because the public LOVES to bet them. Yes I know Miami is looking pretty good lately. Yes I know I just got smoked by Miami last week when I thought the Bills weren't a pos team. Yes I am betting Dallas anyway.   I still don't believe in Miami and they are traveling to Dallas on 4 days rest. Remember what happened to the Jets @ Broncos on 4 days rest? Always take the home team in these scenarios and in this instance its the home team and the better team.

I want to bet the 3 turkey day games but i just cant bring myself to bet my favorite team, so i will be cashing the two early game tickets and then eating turkey, drinking beer, and passing out while i watch the Niners on thanksgiving.

Pittsburgh -10.5 @ K.C. - I'm a bit torn here.....K.C. has looked BAD lately and they have Palko at QB and the Steelers are coming off a bye. Short'ish week as KC just played on Monday night.....I hate to lay 10.5 when KC is at home but the Steelers should just murder the Chiefs here.

Chargers -6.5 vs Tebownites - And here we go again....I refuse to believe the Chargers are a bad team. I also refuse to believe the Broncos can keep winning with 0 productivity out of Tebow until the last 5 minutes of games. I mean this Bronco defense is just not that good and the Chargers have the players to put up some point and force Tebow into playing make believe like hes an NFL QB. If the Chargers can score early (and remember while Norv Turner is a horrid coach, hes a great offensive coordinator) the Chargers destroy Christianity....I mean the Broncos. 

Last Week: 0-5-1
Season: 26-17-2

week 11

Bills +1 @ Miami - Is this the part of the season where i start over-thinking things? The public hates the Bills, especially now that they are coming back down to earth. Vegas and some bettors are starting to say stuff like, "Miami is becoming sneaky good." So obviously this is the point where you have to think the value is on the Bills and they aren't as bad they have looked against two top tier opponents. Meanwhile the Dolphins were THE 2nd worst team in football until two weeks ago. Now they win 2 in a row and they are suddenly favored (although only by 1 at home which means they are dogs technically). Miami has beaten two teams that primarily run the ball. The Bills can light you up through the air and Fred Jackson is light years ahead of Roy Helu/Ryan Torrain and Jackie Battle. I think the Bills come out wanting to prove a point, maybe a last stand of sort before they go back into the oblivion of nothingness.

Jacksonville +1 @ Cleveland - I feel like the Jags have been sneaky good this year and the Browns are even worse than we have seen. McCoy needs to forget everything Brett Favre said to him this off season, Peyton Hillis is too focused on his contract and overvalues himself so he's running tentatively and bye bye Browns running game. Meanwhile Gabbert is having a decent'ish rookie season, the Jags defense is pretty good, and.....well thats all i got really.

Minnesota -1 vs Oakland - Short week for Minnesota but Carson Palmer on the road and much like the Bills i think the Vikings are going to come out with something to prove. They aren't as bad as they looked Monday night and NOBODY is going to torch that secondary again. These NFL players have a lot of pride and it is very rare that a decent team has back to back horrible games.

San Diego +4 @ Chicago - Another one of those letdown games and another instance where I think the public is LOVING a good (god this hurts to say) a good team in the Bears and undervaluing a still good team who's QB is starting to turn it around. Look for Rivers and Gates to have a big week as that Bears cover 2 will take away Jackson and Floyd but get carved up by Rivers and Gates sorta like Rodgers to Finely a few weeks ago. To top it off, the Bears are coming off a big inner division game in which they were super pumped and destroyed a rival. San Diego is coming off a disappointing loss against an inner division rival and this game is pretty big for the Bears playoff pursuit, but HUGE for the Chargers playoff hopes.

Rams -1 vs Seattle  - Don't stop believing buddy! The more I look at this, the more i think Seattle is the bet here but i can't stop backing the Rams after they covered on the road and now are at home in week 2 of Bradford and Lloyd playing on the field.

Ravens -7 vs Cincinnati- Yeah why not.....lets add a 6th game in there and once again lets make it the Ravens game. The Ravens fell for the trap game i boldly predicted last week because they were paying attention to the Bengals vs Pittsburgh game and were on the road. This week they are at home where they will host a rookie QB who is due some regression, and let's not forget the Ravens have probably THE best defense in the NFL that will pressure that rookie and force some mistakes. Harbaugh generally has this team ready to go, especially after a big loss and this should be no different. The 7 points is a lot to cover but with a healthy dose of Ray Rice and a shutout by the defense Ravens all the way!


Last Week: 4-2
Season: 26-12-1

Week 10

SET, GO!

Dallas -5.5 vs Buffalo- Look guys, it was a nice story...."Oh look at Buffalo doing it with all those no name players yadda yadda yadda." They played a nice hot streak sure, but they still are the Bills, they still don't have any talent, and they are going to come crashing down to earth while the Cowboys make a made rush to the top of the NFC East division. Go lay the 5.5 here and cash the ticket on Monday.

Pittsburgh -3 @ Cincinnati- Swear to god Red Rifle, if you screw me over again.....you're gonna be sorry. I haven't believed in the Bengals all year and still don't. Pittsburgh still seems to be undervalued but they have been turning it around lately and should take control of the division starting here by dismantling a young Bengals team that protects the QB. The Steelers D is going to confuse the Red Rifle and run away with this thing.


Detroit +3 @ Chicago- I hate Chicago. I despise Jay Cutler. I think Detroit is a great up and coming team. But lets pretend the odds makers are right and these two teams are even but with Chicago at home, Detroit gets the 3 points. Chicago is coming off a short week and Detroit is coming off a bye. Calvin Johnson should torch this secondary and the Lions D-Line should slaughter Jay Cutler. Seems like easy money to me.


Minnesota +14 @ Green Bay- That Green Bay D ain't what it used to be and Peterson should have a huge day and it just seems like throw the records out when these two play, there is going to be a close game. I wish i had more than that to go with but i don't. I just refuse to pass up the chance to take 14 points in the NFL.


Rams +3 @ Cleveland- I'm still a Rams believer. I know its disgusting but Bradford is back and should be almost fully healthy with a full week and half or so of meshing with Lloyd. Steven Jackson is obviously still a stud and the Rams D is turning the corner while Cleveland is a hot piece of garbage.

While typing out my reasons and such here i noticed i didnt check where the public's money is going. Normally this is crucial so im about to do that right now but not change my bets. It's really good info to go off of when making your bets....ok we look semi safe except EVERYBODY is betting Pittsburgh.

Another team who everybody is betting is the Ravens -6'ish @ Seattle. Look, i know Seattle is horrible but they play pretty good at home and the Ravens have a big division game in week 11 with the Bengals. This is one of those spots where i think the home dog is going to come through and if i had a pair i'd add them as a 6th game this week....hell, i like it as a money line bet to some extent. This game means almost nothing to Baltimore and they will most likely have their eyes on the Pitt and Cincinnati game.

F it, its my 6th game

Seattle +6.5 vs Baltimore




Last Week:  3-2
Season: 22-10-1

Home Field, Schmome Field

Suicide girls for suicide bets

NY Jets +2 @ Buffalo - It's getting cold out and the Jets are a cold weather team in a must win game. This is one of those games where Rex is going to have the Jets ready to go and they are going to play shutdown D against an overrated Bills team who will inevitably come back down to earth. Call me crazy but i think this is for Rex Ryan's career and, like he has up to this point, i think he delivers in a tough spot.

Atlanta -7 @ Indy - I actually hate this game as i am betting against a home dog, and the public is 75% on the Falcons side. Still, the Falcons are coming off a bye, are getting Julio Jones back, and are due to turn it around where the Colts defense is absolutely horrid and they should continue to suck all season. Can i go on a

Manning is overrated as shit and would have lead this team to 6 wins this year if he was healthy rant? Seriously draft Luck, or even the USC QB and let them sit a year or so behind Manning b/c he is perhaps the greatest regular season QB ever, despite being a choke artist in big games (yes i know the Colts won the Superbowl, but it despite him as he had a 70'ish QB rating during those playoffs.)

Tampa +8 @ NO - Alright Vegas, we get it, you are making bigger NFL lines than i ever remember and giving up a TD+ is not too uncommon. Still, despite a few teams this is still the league of parity and these are two division rivals and the Saints have been doing this for a few seasons....scorch a shit team, then play just a bit better than some good teams, and drop a game here or there that perhaps you shouldn't have. The Bucs are still a bit undervalued from that slow start and the recovery from the over-hypiung they had during the off-season. Sure they got murdered by the Niners, but those games are the exception, not the rule. Bucs are a great bet here at +8.

Green Bay - 5.5 @ SD - The 2nd of 5 games I hate to bet this week, but the heart wants what the heart wants. The public is all over the Packers, and the Chargers are at home, buttttt the Pack is coming off a bye and are by far the superior team. To be honest if the Chargers had a decent coach I'd 180 this and bet the Chargers both with the points and on the moneyline, but they dont, they have Norv Turner, and this is the year I think the Chargers turn that corner where A.J. Smith thinks, "hmmmmm maybe I should have held onto Schottenheimer."


Rams +3 @ AZ - The Cardinals are who I thought they were, and this is where the Rams start fulfilling some of that preseason hype. Brandon Lloyd is a good fit back with McDaniels, A.J Feeley(sp?) is playing decent (although not decent enough for me to Google spellcheck his name), and the Rams D looks like it could really start to step up. Last night i was laying in bed and literally started lol'ing at the Kolb trade. I mean as a Niners fan, that trade makes me want to go kiss Andy Reid on the mouth.


That's it. No pathetic attempts at being funny this week.....just the bets to make and some suicide girls

Last week: 3-2
Season: 19-8-1