Friday, September 28, 2012

Five for Friday

Now that the refs are back I'm figuring we'll get off the break even snide.

I like being insane. I like my addictive personality. When i was in my early 20's i would focus this insanity and personality into positive things like working out, and making money. Now in my 30's i've somehow fallen into this rut where i am at least working my way up with the federal government (i haven't become a pos yet guys so don't judge me) but i'm a long way from healthy and am not more addicted to horrible health.

For example, as we speak i am baking my wife and mine third red velvet cake.....OF THE WEEK!!! 

I mean wow....i know it makes me a fat slob of a person. I've gained 50lbs in the 2.5 years we've been together. But breaking out of that addictive pattern is something that is definitely on the horizon, i'm just not quite ready to do.

But with the horribly bad health habits i know that there is an end in sight. One day i will wake up and i will not be a fat slob, i will be a.....well i'll still be a fat slob but i'll start trending back to gym guy Eric.

With gambling there is no end in sight. There is only levels of winning and losing. I've always been fairly open with how consistently of a sports bet loser i am, but just to reinforce that let me remind you that i never intended to find poker (the only form of gambling i am a lifetime winner at) but rather i got referred to Bodog back in 2004 so that i could bet on sports and play blackjack. 

From that day forward i have been a losing sports bettor. I have literally NEVER been in the positive with sports.

So while i've conquered the blackjack degenerate in me and the craps degenerate in me.....and the table games degenerate in me, i have never - and never really wanted to - conquer the sports bettor degenerate in me. 

In same way shape or form that will always live on. I will always dole out my picks and leave it up to you to fade them (bet the opposite), agree with them (lose money), or outright ignore them (by far the best option). 

With that chipper intro out of the way lets get to the picks (no hot girl pics today)

SD +1 @ KC: Remember when i picked the Pats vs AZ and said, "Man, if there is one of these bets to not do this is it."? Well....Man, if there is one of these bets to not do, this is it. This is my pick of the week for "The Bet" vs The Rant but it just screams "TRAP GAME!!!" Degens, Let us unite and UNLOAD on this Lock of the Week!

NE - 3.5 @ Buffalo: Billy B isn't going to come out lightly here. Great coaches and teams know when the bleeding must stop in order to salvage the season and that is clearly this game. Brady and the Gronks ROLL!!!

STL +3 vs Seattle: Seachickens aren't at home any more which = they suck again. The Rams come into this game a bit underrated while the Seahawks come in a bit overrated. I'll take the home team plus the points for an easy win.

San Fran - 4 @ NYJ: The Jets seriously might be the worst 2-1 team in the history of the NFL and they just lost Revis. San Fran is coming off a disappointing loss and Harbaugh won't let that happen twice. I'd be shocked if the Jets score here or stop the Niners more than 4 times all game. 

Oak + 7 @ Denver: Everybody is betting Denver. Here's the thing though....Denver sucks!!! Peyton has fallen behind by 3 TD's in two straight games. Manning is throwing the ball like....well like he's had 4 neck surgeries in 2 years and will never be the same QB ever again. This isn't so much me liking the Raiders as it is hating the Broncos and thinking the public - and therefore Vegas - are overvaluing this line. 

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 4-5-1


My cake is ready which means this article is done son.

Good luck degens




Seriously degens lets get on this. Click the banner and lets own draft day

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Eric goes to the doctor

And catches a case of the lazies.....and the excuses
Damn nurses!!!

So i've had this cyst on my wrist for a few....years. I had neglected it and neglected until it started really hurting and interfering with life. I went to the doctor and he laughed at me and said, "Dude....seriously how long has that been there? We need to surgically remove that. Don't worry though, you'll be back to normal the next day."

So i scheduled the surgery and like i do most things that normal humans would consider important, i forgot all about it. I mean what are wives for right?

Well Monday night the wife tells me i can't eat or drink anything b/c i'm having surgery in the morning. I go in, get the surgery and thought, "Meh i'll write my new Tuesday theme (Top Pickups Tuesdays) when i get home." Except when i got home i was in way more pain than i thought i would be (Ima pussE).

So Tuesday was not happening but i did fully intend to write a WTF Wednesday. Except here is the thing, I didn't. Instead i was fully neglecting the blog, eating some red velvet cake, and getting ready to watch Breaking Bad (I'm so ridiculously late on this show my wife and i just started watching it) and my buddy pops up on Facebook and calls me out, "Neglecting the blog again...." (and this pic is in his honor)


The thing is i dropped the ball for Tuesday, you're currently reading a WTF'ing, but i have no fucking idea what to write about.
Loyal blog readers fear not, i will do what i always do when i run out of creativity, i will post pics of slutty looking chicks that may or may not be related to this blog post and hope that tomorrow is a better day


And I'm out!!!

Monday, September 24, 2012

What the Gronk!!!

It's another Monday and after this week's games it's time for some big time reactions.

Overall my fantasy teams did well going 4-1. Obviously the lone blemish on that record coming from my favorite league. The infamous league in which i slept through the first two rounds of the draft and ended up with Gronk and Graham. The infamous league in which i just recently traded for Chris Johnson in hopes that this would be the week he turns it around.

Due to my sick drafting strategy of TE, TE, i ended up with Steven Jackson and Ahmed Bradshaw at RB1 and RB2, and Reggie Wayne at WR1 with a weekly decision of Danny Amendola or DeSean Jackson at WR2 every week (which i have gotten wrong every week).

Up until this week we were 1-1 with our only loss being a 0.4 point loss. Gronk and Graham had averaged 20pts per and my WR's were good enough with Eli Manning to look like if we got any production at RB we'd be in the thick of the race.

Then this week happened.

Bradshaw and Jackson got banged up, Gronk and Graham decided to not beast it, and Chris Johnson (yes, he has officially lost the nickname along with his fantasy starting player status on all teams for the forseeable future).

This was the risk with Bradshaw and Jackson so let's accept that. CJ2....Chris Johnson looks like he tricked us at the end of last season and should at this point be benched for almost any other starting RB.

Graham had a down game sure but he still put up double digit points in a ppr league.

This Monday Maniac Overreaction isn't about them, it's about one man (and one stupidly hot woman). A beast of a man with maybe the sickest life ever. One man who should be no child's hero but every 15 year old plus male should worship.

This freakout, is about....The Gronk!

When you are a raging degenerate you start to notice patterns in your bets. We don't follow the patterns because we convince ourselves we know better and we have sound logic, and that is what makes us who we are and is one of the requirements of joining the, "I just lost wayyyyy too much money on X form of gambling so now here i am at a much more reasonable stakes game throwing caution and strategy to the wind and getting drunk out of my mind while i try to numb the fact that my children now will have to be happy with eating off the dollar menu for dinner for the next 3 months" Club.

This weekend for example you had a Panthers team that everybody told you was good. I mean Cam Newton (yes he has what 6 wins as a starter?) is the league's greatest player and the defense is sick!. You had the Giants coming off a home loss (like they always do)and going on the road (where they own it) so obviously logic says the Giants losing at home and winning on the road is just a coincidence over a small sample, and the Entertainment (and a little bit of) Sports Programming Network says the Panthers are legit good this year so i gotta go Panthers -2.5.

Except here's the thing, raise your hand if you have tried this logic with the Giants the last 3 years and lost your ass *raises hand*. We have noticed this trend and yet us true degens still went and put our money down on the Panthers and watched in horror as history repeated itself. *insert the "do you know the definition of insanity" quote here*

Trends like this are obivous to us veteran degens who have given up on the hope of being winning bettors long ago. It is only to the well trained degen eye that the Gronk downfall prediction would have been spotted.

Sometimes when things line up perfectly for a player or a bet you just know they are destined to do exactly the opposite. The Packers vs Bears over for example. Or in this case when Gronk started the season meeting his lofty first round pick as a TE expectations through the first two weeks. Welker was being phased out, Hernandez got hurt, and Brady had obviously fallen in love with and been given orders to switch his safety blanket from Welker to Gronk.

And then Bibi Jones happened....
She's a Steelers Spy!!!

Oh Bibi, you amazingly hot yet unenthusiastic "peformer." You "retired" from the industry after getting more famous off a Gronk pic than any of your films. You continued tweeting your slutty pics and name dropping Gronk any time you could until you got....weird. You went back to your real name and got all emo on us but you still had this Gronk connection and Gronk continued to thrive in the games.

Then, on the eve of September 22nd two thousand and twelve Bibi Jones did the unimaginable....she deleted her Twitter account. Poof! Gone! And just like that the golden locks of Hercules aka Gronkowski had been cut. I saw this, i screamed in agony as i saw the future of all my Gronk based teams suddenly losing 15+ points of production a week and falling into the consolation bracket where i pathetically came up short to a team who didn't even start all their players.

I woke up and convinced myself that surely Bibi would not be the downfall of the mighty Gronk and all i had seen was just an overreaction nightmare and not a vision of what was to come.

Sunday played and i had a solid 30 piont lead going into Sunday night with Gronk vs Ray Rice, Grostowsky (Pats Kicker), and Jermicheal Finley. Fast forward and here i am without even a sweat on Monday night as Ray Rice and Grostowsky ourscored 30 points and Gronk.

Gronk finished the night with 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 21 yards. Brady rediscovered Welker and the replacement refs earned the striking refs a BIG raise.

The only thing we can do to reverse the Gronk curse is rally up all the Gronk owners and start a campaign to get Bibi back.
After all she's going to need a new job after the replacement refs are....replaced

And now for the rest of this week's reactions....

The Good:


Jamaal Charles - BEEP BEEP All aboard!!! Charles may not have looked great in the first two weeks - in fact he looked bad - but the Chiefs weren't exactly in a position to let him get it going since they were down 14 - 0 in both games by the time warm-ups were over. Don't expect 532 points a week out of him but he should be a reliable RB1 most weeks.

Larry Fitzgerald - You knew it was coming. Fitz is going to get his (and he was playing me in the degen league so you knew he was going to go off) but the reason i was and still am down on him is his production is going to be so sporatic without a decent QB. Kevin Kolb and Skelton have basically turned Fitzgerald into a Vincent Jackson clone. Highly volatile receivers who will have good/great stats at the end of it but if you owned them you will have no idea how they got those stats as you forget the 5 weeks they owned it and remember the 11 weeks of almost 0 production.

The Bad:


Chris Johnson - Oh how quickly averaging 2.2 ypc vs a soft matchup will take you from the "Trade for" list to the "Bench!!!" list. Really nothing to say here other than wait for the O-Line to hopefully quit sucking and for CJ to have a good game or two before putting him back in your lineup.

Ps Javone Ringer is not the answer. It's not that CJ sucks it's that he's getting hit behind the line of scrimmage too much and the Titans already showed last year they won't make that switch.

Cory Fleener/Donnie Avery - One week does not a fantasy player make. Luck is going to take his lumps and the only sure option is Wayne.


The injured:

Nothing significant i can think of so let's just look at the some of the buttefly affects of the minor ones.


Matty Stafford - Oh look he's getting injured again.

Ahmed Bradsahw - Samesies except it's time to get worried that a time-share is happening here with Brown.

Steven Jackson - Played the whole game and for some reason i feel more secure with him keeping 90% of the carries here than i do with Bradshaw.

Bring Bibi back and we can have more Twitter pics like these

Friday, September 21, 2012

Boxing?

Yup, boxing.

I know this is out of the norm of things you will read here but believe it or not i was a boxing fan much longer than i should have been. I've loved watching Bernard Hopkins, Roy Jones, and Mayweather. Even going back to Tyson when he was good and Tyson when he was biting ears.

I was late on the UFC love fest mostly due to my undying loyalty to boxing. Even still i'm not a huge UFC guy and rarely will talk about anything outside of NFL, MLB, Poker, Degeneracy, and a bit of NBA. However, i -like every other boxing fan still out there- am looking forward to that one last great fight and am well past being angry and in the stage of apathy when it comes to the Pacquiao vs Mayweather super-fight.

Sure there will be other boxers and other big fights in boxing but to be honest, and i think i speak for most sports fans outside of boxing purist when i say this, Pacman vs Mayweather will most likely be the last fight we care about. The curtain call on a great American sport that has transcended social boundaries dating back to the days of Jack Johnson and Jim Crow.  The fact that it has taken this long for boxing to deliver this fight is the exact reason whey boxing is being replaced by UFC who manages to put every fight together the fans ever want.

Having said that, i have been a big time Mayweather supporter. Up until this point i have completely understood Mayweather's concerns with Pac being on PED's. Up until this point i have argued that Mayweather is the bigger draw and deserves the bigger cut (though i am lol wrong about that and def showing my Mayweather homerism there). Up until this point i have thought that it was Pacquiao who was scared of Mayweather, or more accurately scared of being ruining his legacy through the exposure of PED usage.

But after seeing this interview it is now in up to Mayweather to step up. Pacquiao can't do anything else to accept this fight other than sign on the line. (Skip to about 4 minutes)



We don't care about your 6 figure sports bet slips. We don't care about you and 50 cent promoting fights. We don't care about any of that. All we want is our last great super fight. All we want is to see two great fighters deliver a fight before it's too late. Before it turns into the laughing stock of a fight that Hopkins vs Jones 2 turned into when it was 10 years too late. Do it for the fans! Do it for the sport that has given you so much! Do it for the paycheck which you will inevitably blow on sports betting (i can appreciate that) or whatever it is you keep blowing all your money on. We don't care why you do it, but DO IT!!!

Pac has called you out here saying he'll agree to 45-55, the drug testing, and even saying you admitted to him, "What if i lose?" Step up Mayweather. Ball's in your court and the days of public interest and respect for calling you the greatest pound for pound fighter - maybe of all time - are running short.


Five For Friday Week 3

OK, OK our first hiccup where i missed a Thursday blog post but in my defense....F Thursdays! My readers are loyal but obviously i cover the topics so thoroughly and they are so informed that they just don't have many questions to email me. So i'm thinking Thursdays are getting a makeover but i'll wait until next Thursday to unveil it.

So this week a buddy of mine (http://acbarone.blogspot.com/) was doubting my betting prowess and after i tried over and over to save him money he finally needled me into a bet.

The Bet - Bet 1 game a week the next 15 weeks that is my "Lock" of the week and if i finish with a winning record i win the bet, if i finish with a losing record or a breakeven record i lose the bet.

Zzzz easy money right? Anybody? Bueller? Bueller?

Uh silent but loyal followers, you really need to start getting my back more often with some emails and degenerate support if you want me to keep posting ATM picks for you to keep cashing in on.....

Which leads us to our Five For Friday picks and i'll start with my LOCK

Dallas -8 vs Tampa - Dallas home opener coming off a disappointing loss. Dallas is looking healthy and Tampa is on the road going to Dallas after having been in NY last week. Sure Tampa looked good enough to win in week 1 and had a 4th quarter blow up in week 2 but i am not a believer and mark it down the Cowboys win this game by double digits.

New Orleans -6.5 vs KC - This is it, if the Saints aren't total trash this is where they start winning. They have KC at home. KC can't stop anybody but neither can the Saints. This will be an offensive explosion so get Cassel, Charles, Bowe, Moeaki, Brees, Sproles, Colston, Graham, Moore in there and cash this ticket while your fantasy teams cruise to victory

Minnesota +7 vs San Fran - Hedging a bet against my team? Maybe but this is a good bet. San Fran is not a big margin of victory winner and are spotting a TD on the road. Sure this line of thought didn't work out (ALMOST!!!) last week but it's still sound logic. Add to it that the Niners have had two big games to start the season and I'm thinking they are due for a let down.

Detroit @ Tenn in a Pick 'em game - Locker is still the QB right? Detroit is getting a great "thunder/lightning" RB tandem right? Detroit is coming off a loss and feeling a bit desperate in the stacked NFC Central right? Zzzzzzzzzzzz

Buffalo - 3 @ Cleveland - It's still early in the season so you can put money on the Bills still. I mean i still think that D-Line is going to get after QB's and we saw what Wheeden does with pressure. That plus the Bills offense and take this game to the bank


Last week: 2-2-1
Season: 2-2-1

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

WTF....

Why not?

10 team PPR league. This is the infamous league in which i slept through the first two rounds only to wake up, log on, and see that i had drafted Gronk and Graham with my first two picks. The rest of my roster now looks like this

QB - Eli Manning
RB - Steven Jackson
RB - Ahmed Bradshaw
WR - Reggie Wayne
WR - Danny Amendola
TE - Gronk
Flex - Jimmy Graham

Now aside from not having any roster flexibility with Graham or Gronk constantly filling the TE/Flex positions i kinda like my team. I mean Eli is a rollercoaster but should put up points. SJax and Bradshaw are solid PPR backs but neither is a #1 guy and are more solid 2's. Wayne is looking like a legit low end #1 or high end 2 and Amendola is low end 2 or high end 3. Then i have the best TE and most consistent Flex in the league.

My bench is filled with high upside guys and one guy who the jury is still out on

BJGE
DeSean Jackson
Mike Leshoure
Randall Cobb
Jacquizz Rodgers
Kendall Hunter
Darryl Richardson

So i like my starters and BJGE and DeSean Jackson can fill in on bye weeks very nicely and then lottery tickets the rest of the way down.

The problem i had with this lineup is there is no upside. The entire roster is basically grinders so if the team i am playing that week has a big week from a player or two i am basically toast b/c my team has no upside. These guys are just going to go out and put up about 120 points every week and if you can beat that you win.

It's like the team was built not to lose and if there is one thing in my life i have never done it's play "not to lose."

*Cue Herm Edwards*

"YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!"

Thanks Herm

So i set out looking for trade partners who had slumping players with big ceiling and low basements.

A couple guys were on my radar and i know their owners like to trade.

Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles topped the list and i set out ot make offers.

I offered up BJGE for CJ2K straight up and the CJ2K owner snap called so i didn't like that but i got my guy without much effort.

Then i was going to let it be except now i hear the owner of Charles is out there looking for WR's and i Jackson sitting on my bench begging me to trade him. Plus he's had a couple good games and Charles obviously has not.

I floated that offer out there and am waiting to hear back.

My thinking is this.....It's only week 2 people!

If you had told me two weeks ago i would have a roster of

Eli
Charles
CJ2K
Wayne
Amendola
Gronk
Graham

I'd have literally shit myself. Like literally i would have dropped my pants, laid on my back and done a celebratory shitting all over myself....not that i'm into that.

Owners are panicking this year it seems and I'm going to risk looking stupid or winning my leauge. When you make trades like these those are really the only two outcomes.

So go out there, target these scared owners, and PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!



*editors note*.....(ha, that's me too)

I just played my first weekend on draftday.com and had a 75% roi. I'll repost the link for your gaming pleasure when i get home, but seriously get in on this and if you are already in on it let me know and i'll start dedicating some blog space to it.

Banners are fun!! Click it, sign up, make monies!




Tuesday, September 18, 2012

OH CHRIST!!!!

I dont know how i did it but somehow Tier Ranking Tuesdays is below the Monday blog.....