week 11

Bills +1 @ Miami - Is this the part of the season where i start over-thinking things? The public hates the Bills, especially now that they are coming back down to earth. Vegas and some bettors are starting to say stuff like, "Miami is becoming sneaky good." So obviously this is the point where you have to think the value is on the Bills and they aren't as bad they have looked against two top tier opponents. Meanwhile the Dolphins were THE 2nd worst team in football until two weeks ago. Now they win 2 in a row and they are suddenly favored (although only by 1 at home which means they are dogs technically). Miami has beaten two teams that primarily run the ball. The Bills can light you up through the air and Fred Jackson is light years ahead of Roy Helu/Ryan Torrain and Jackie Battle. I think the Bills come out wanting to prove a point, maybe a last stand of sort before they go back into the oblivion of nothingness.

Jacksonville +1 @ Cleveland - I feel like the Jags have been sneaky good this year and the Browns are even worse than we have seen. McCoy needs to forget everything Brett Favre said to him this off season, Peyton Hillis is too focused on his contract and overvalues himself so he's running tentatively and bye bye Browns running game. Meanwhile Gabbert is having a decent'ish rookie season, the Jags defense is pretty good, and.....well thats all i got really.

Minnesota -1 vs Oakland - Short week for Minnesota but Carson Palmer on the road and much like the Bills i think the Vikings are going to come out with something to prove. They aren't as bad as they looked Monday night and NOBODY is going to torch that secondary again. These NFL players have a lot of pride and it is very rare that a decent team has back to back horrible games.

San Diego +4 @ Chicago - Another one of those letdown games and another instance where I think the public is LOVING a good (god this hurts to say) a good team in the Bears and undervaluing a still good team who's QB is starting to turn it around. Look for Rivers and Gates to have a big week as that Bears cover 2 will take away Jackson and Floyd but get carved up by Rivers and Gates sorta like Rodgers to Finely a few weeks ago. To top it off, the Bears are coming off a big inner division game in which they were super pumped and destroyed a rival. San Diego is coming off a disappointing loss against an inner division rival and this game is pretty big for the Bears playoff pursuit, but HUGE for the Chargers playoff hopes.

Rams -1 vs Seattle  - Don't stop believing buddy! The more I look at this, the more i think Seattle is the bet here but i can't stop backing the Rams after they covered on the road and now are at home in week 2 of Bradford and Lloyd playing on the field.

Ravens -7 vs Cincinnati- Yeah why not.....lets add a 6th game in there and once again lets make it the Ravens game. The Ravens fell for the trap game i boldly predicted last week because they were paying attention to the Bengals vs Pittsburgh game and were on the road. This week they are at home where they will host a rookie QB who is due some regression, and let's not forget the Ravens have probably THE best defense in the NFL that will pressure that rookie and force some mistakes. Harbaugh generally has this team ready to go, especially after a big loss and this should be no different. The 7 points is a lot to cover but with a healthy dose of Ray Rice and a shutout by the defense Ravens all the way!


Last Week: 4-2
Season: 26-12-1