HEY HEY!!!!!

F sports betting!!!!

Seriously i hate it more than life itself......you know what i love though? Fantasy sports. I love fantasy sports more than my own daugh.....ugh i love fantasy sports a lot.

So the DOJ took poker away from me and in a way i should sort of thank them. Not having the poker outlet has sort of rekindled the inner sports fan in me that has laid dormant for the last 10 years or so.

Besides the DOJ, there is another factor that has played a big role in my sports fan resurgence and that is....fantasy sports.

10, 15 years ago, you could not find a bigger sports fan. I knew EVERYTHING that happened on my teams and 9 out of 10 times i knew more about what happened on your teams than you did. Football, baseball, basketball i was on top of it. Then life kind of got in the way.

I joined the army and missed a year of all the sports. Then i came back and got back into football no problem, mostly because i 1) Played Madden compulsively and 2) I played fantasy football. I didnt have time, didnt care, and lost touch with baseball and basketball.

A few years later poker entered my life and i dropped madden and kept fantasy football. I turned into "that guy." I knew about some of the player movement in the NFL but mostly i could rattle of mock drafts and fantasy football rankings but i'd lost touch with the actual sport. (Proven by my massive losses in 2007, 2008, every year ever of sports betting).

Then last year a friend of mine invited me to a fantasy baseball league.....i was lost big time. I didnt know starting rosters for most teams and i kind of just followed a rankings sheet with no opinion and learned on the fly throughout the baseball season. Wouldnt you know, i took 2nd in the league.

Now this year with the outlawing of poker i dove in to fantasy baseball. I studied, watched games, paid attention to the minors and suddenly BOOM! I'm in love with baseball again.

Football season came around and i had time to watch and bam, im back in the mix for both NFL and the NCAA.

Then basketball season crept up on me. I told myself, "Nooooooo, im not interested.....i am too out of touch." The things is, last year i was too out of touch with baseball and now that passion is back. I used to love basketball as much as, if not more than, baseball.....this is possible. Listening to a podcast talk about basketball somewhat got the fire going a bit. Now I'm thinking i need to find a fantasy basketball league.

I need to get that 1990's basketball love back. I need to watch some games and get that passion going like it was when we used to blast the Charles Barkley Suns games back during their Finals run. I need to see some KJ over Olajowan dunks.

I need to join a league, watch some games, and became a 3 sport spectator again.

So here we go, here come some horrible, uneducated, basketball, football, and baseball hard headed opinion articles. Statements like how Peyton Manning isnt clutch and Jay Cutler is the most overrated POS in the NFL. Statements like the THIS IS THE CUBS YEAR BABY!\ and Holy shit Phoenix trade Steve Nash and let him go win a ring in NY.

Bueller? Bueller?

Anybody still with me after that lovely week of bets?

Every bettor has weeks like this and after how hot we had started it was only a matter of time until something like this happened. In order to be a winning sports bettor you need to win 53% of your bets. The best sports bettors in the world can hit at 56 or 57%. We were running at 68% which I have been saying was unsustainable so it was only a matter of time before regression hit us hard. Would I have rather had 5 weeks of 2 wins, 3 losses? Of course, but one thing I have learned in my many ventures into multiple facets of gambling is its all about the streak. We had a nice streak of steady winning with some big weeks in there and now hopefully we got the losing streak out of the way.

Tampa Bay +3.5 @ Tennessee - QB controversy in Tennessee? I think these teams are about even to be honest but the Titans may be overrated from their semi hot start and Tampa might still have some value as every time they get something going the schedule really hits them hard. Tampa is one of the youngest teams in the NFL, they have a young QB, and they missed the preseason camps etc that are vital to building that chemistry they seem to be lacking. Given that school of thought, the Bucs should start to gel, start to get that chemistry, and start to cover some spreads if not win outright as a dog a few times.

Detroit +6 vs Green Bay - I'm pretty sure this is my stubborn idiot gambler side that is all emotional decisions and has nothing to do with facts. Green Bay has to lose one right? I mean they have been flirting with losing the last few weeks (except for the one time i bet against them and gave the Vikings 14 obviously). Detroit can/does pressure the QB with that sick D-Line. Detroit can score with anybody and the Packers are looking vulnerable. Short week for the Packers going on the road in a big division game @ a hostile environment.

Dallas -7 vs Miami - The theme of this week is stubbornness. Yes I know Dallas is always overvalued because the public LOVES to bet them. Yes I know Miami is looking pretty good lately. Yes I know I just got smoked by Miami last week when I thought the Bills weren't a pos team. Yes I am betting Dallas anyway.   I still don't believe in Miami and they are traveling to Dallas on 4 days rest. Remember what happened to the Jets @ Broncos on 4 days rest? Always take the home team in these scenarios and in this instance its the home team and the better team.

I want to bet the 3 turkey day games but i just cant bring myself to bet my favorite team, so i will be cashing the two early game tickets and then eating turkey, drinking beer, and passing out while i watch the Niners on thanksgiving.

Pittsburgh -10.5 @ K.C. - I'm a bit torn here.....K.C. has looked BAD lately and they have Palko at QB and the Steelers are coming off a bye. Short'ish week as KC just played on Monday night.....I hate to lay 10.5 when KC is at home but the Steelers should just murder the Chiefs here.

Chargers -6.5 vs Tebownites - And here we go again....I refuse to believe the Chargers are a bad team. I also refuse to believe the Broncos can keep winning with 0 productivity out of Tebow until the last 5 minutes of games. I mean this Bronco defense is just not that good and the Chargers have the players to put up some point and force Tebow into playing make believe like hes an NFL QB. If the Chargers can score early (and remember while Norv Turner is a horrid coach, hes a great offensive coordinator) the Chargers destroy Christianity....I mean the Broncos. 

Last Week: 0-5-1
Season: 26-17-2

week 11

Bills +1 @ Miami - Is this the part of the season where i start over-thinking things? The public hates the Bills, especially now that they are coming back down to earth. Vegas and some bettors are starting to say stuff like, "Miami is becoming sneaky good." So obviously this is the point where you have to think the value is on the Bills and they aren't as bad they have looked against two top tier opponents. Meanwhile the Dolphins were THE 2nd worst team in football until two weeks ago. Now they win 2 in a row and they are suddenly favored (although only by 1 at home which means they are dogs technically). Miami has beaten two teams that primarily run the ball. The Bills can light you up through the air and Fred Jackson is light years ahead of Roy Helu/Ryan Torrain and Jackie Battle. I think the Bills come out wanting to prove a point, maybe a last stand of sort before they go back into the oblivion of nothingness.

Jacksonville +1 @ Cleveland - I feel like the Jags have been sneaky good this year and the Browns are even worse than we have seen. McCoy needs to forget everything Brett Favre said to him this off season, Peyton Hillis is too focused on his contract and overvalues himself so he's running tentatively and bye bye Browns running game. Meanwhile Gabbert is having a decent'ish rookie season, the Jags defense is pretty good, and.....well thats all i got really.

Minnesota -1 vs Oakland - Short week for Minnesota but Carson Palmer on the road and much like the Bills i think the Vikings are going to come out with something to prove. They aren't as bad as they looked Monday night and NOBODY is going to torch that secondary again. These NFL players have a lot of pride and it is very rare that a decent team has back to back horrible games.

San Diego +4 @ Chicago - Another one of those letdown games and another instance where I think the public is LOVING a good (god this hurts to say) a good team in the Bears and undervaluing a still good team who's QB is starting to turn it around. Look for Rivers and Gates to have a big week as that Bears cover 2 will take away Jackson and Floyd but get carved up by Rivers and Gates sorta like Rodgers to Finely a few weeks ago. To top it off, the Bears are coming off a big inner division game in which they were super pumped and destroyed a rival. San Diego is coming off a disappointing loss against an inner division rival and this game is pretty big for the Bears playoff pursuit, but HUGE for the Chargers playoff hopes.

Rams -1 vs Seattle  - Don't stop believing buddy! The more I look at this, the more i think Seattle is the bet here but i can't stop backing the Rams after they covered on the road and now are at home in week 2 of Bradford and Lloyd playing on the field.

Ravens -7 vs Cincinnati- Yeah why not.....lets add a 6th game in there and once again lets make it the Ravens game. The Ravens fell for the trap game i boldly predicted last week because they were paying attention to the Bengals vs Pittsburgh game and were on the road. This week they are at home where they will host a rookie QB who is due some regression, and let's not forget the Ravens have probably THE best defense in the NFL that will pressure that rookie and force some mistakes. Harbaugh generally has this team ready to go, especially after a big loss and this should be no different. The 7 points is a lot to cover but with a healthy dose of Ray Rice and a shutout by the defense Ravens all the way!


Last Week: 4-2
Season: 26-12-1

Week 10

SET, GO!

Dallas -5.5 vs Buffalo- Look guys, it was a nice story...."Oh look at Buffalo doing it with all those no name players yadda yadda yadda." They played a nice hot streak sure, but they still are the Bills, they still don't have any talent, and they are going to come crashing down to earth while the Cowboys make a made rush to the top of the NFC East division. Go lay the 5.5 here and cash the ticket on Monday.

Pittsburgh -3 @ Cincinnati- Swear to god Red Rifle, if you screw me over again.....you're gonna be sorry. I haven't believed in the Bengals all year and still don't. Pittsburgh still seems to be undervalued but they have been turning it around lately and should take control of the division starting here by dismantling a young Bengals team that protects the QB. The Steelers D is going to confuse the Red Rifle and run away with this thing.


Detroit +3 @ Chicago- I hate Chicago. I despise Jay Cutler. I think Detroit is a great up and coming team. But lets pretend the odds makers are right and these two teams are even but with Chicago at home, Detroit gets the 3 points. Chicago is coming off a short week and Detroit is coming off a bye. Calvin Johnson should torch this secondary and the Lions D-Line should slaughter Jay Cutler. Seems like easy money to me.


Minnesota +14 @ Green Bay- That Green Bay D ain't what it used to be and Peterson should have a huge day and it just seems like throw the records out when these two play, there is going to be a close game. I wish i had more than that to go with but i don't. I just refuse to pass up the chance to take 14 points in the NFL.


Rams +3 @ Cleveland- I'm still a Rams believer. I know its disgusting but Bradford is back and should be almost fully healthy with a full week and half or so of meshing with Lloyd. Steven Jackson is obviously still a stud and the Rams D is turning the corner while Cleveland is a hot piece of garbage.

While typing out my reasons and such here i noticed i didnt check where the public's money is going. Normally this is crucial so im about to do that right now but not change my bets. It's really good info to go off of when making your bets....ok we look semi safe except EVERYBODY is betting Pittsburgh.

Another team who everybody is betting is the Ravens -6'ish @ Seattle. Look, i know Seattle is horrible but they play pretty good at home and the Ravens have a big division game in week 11 with the Bengals. This is one of those spots where i think the home dog is going to come through and if i had a pair i'd add them as a 6th game this week....hell, i like it as a money line bet to some extent. This game means almost nothing to Baltimore and they will most likely have their eyes on the Pitt and Cincinnati game.

F it, its my 6th game

Seattle +6.5 vs Baltimore




Last Week:  3-2
Season: 22-10-1

Home Field, Schmome Field

Suicide girls for suicide bets

NY Jets +2 @ Buffalo - It's getting cold out and the Jets are a cold weather team in a must win game. This is one of those games where Rex is going to have the Jets ready to go and they are going to play shutdown D against an overrated Bills team who will inevitably come back down to earth. Call me crazy but i think this is for Rex Ryan's career and, like he has up to this point, i think he delivers in a tough spot.

Atlanta -7 @ Indy - I actually hate this game as i am betting against a home dog, and the public is 75% on the Falcons side. Still, the Falcons are coming off a bye, are getting Julio Jones back, and are due to turn it around where the Colts defense is absolutely horrid and they should continue to suck all season. Can i go on a

Manning is overrated as shit and would have lead this team to 6 wins this year if he was healthy rant? Seriously draft Luck, or even the USC QB and let them sit a year or so behind Manning b/c he is perhaps the greatest regular season QB ever, despite being a choke artist in big games (yes i know the Colts won the Superbowl, but it despite him as he had a 70'ish QB rating during those playoffs.)

Tampa +8 @ NO - Alright Vegas, we get it, you are making bigger NFL lines than i ever remember and giving up a TD+ is not too uncommon. Still, despite a few teams this is still the league of parity and these are two division rivals and the Saints have been doing this for a few seasons....scorch a shit team, then play just a bit better than some good teams, and drop a game here or there that perhaps you shouldn't have. The Bucs are still a bit undervalued from that slow start and the recovery from the over-hypiung they had during the off-season. Sure they got murdered by the Niners, but those games are the exception, not the rule. Bucs are a great bet here at +8.

Green Bay - 5.5 @ SD - The 2nd of 5 games I hate to bet this week, but the heart wants what the heart wants. The public is all over the Packers, and the Chargers are at home, buttttt the Pack is coming off a bye and are by far the superior team. To be honest if the Chargers had a decent coach I'd 180 this and bet the Chargers both with the points and on the moneyline, but they dont, they have Norv Turner, and this is the year I think the Chargers turn that corner where A.J. Smith thinks, "hmmmmm maybe I should have held onto Schottenheimer."


Rams +3 @ AZ - The Cardinals are who I thought they were, and this is where the Rams start fulfilling some of that preseason hype. Brandon Lloyd is a good fit back with McDaniels, A.J Feeley(sp?) is playing decent (although not decent enough for me to Google spellcheck his name), and the Rams D looks like it could really start to step up. Last night i was laying in bed and literally started lol'ing at the Kolb trade. I mean as a Niners fan, that trade makes me want to go kiss Andy Reid on the mouth.


That's it. No pathetic attempts at being funny this week.....just the bets to make and some suicide girls

Last week: 3-2
Season: 19-8-1

300 miles and 103 years apart

As I watched the Cardinals win their 11th world series in the last 100'ish years and my avid Cardinals fan of a friend gloat on Facebook about it, i thought, "Why Oh Why did i become a Cubs fan?" Ok, i was born in Chicago but just 300 miles away i could have been born a Cardinals fan and not have to suffer like this year, after year, after year. I would love if the "rivalry" (i use the term loosely here as this is about the same scale rivalry as fat kids vs cake, or ears vs Tyson) looked like this:

Sadly, it looks more like this: 

Oh the life of a Cubs fan....

If you look at the hole the Cubs are in, it is really quite depressing from a fan's perspective. Soriano, Zambrano, no farm system b/c of the Garza trade, and we hired the wrong manager. I mean lets talk about that one for a second....Ryan Sandberg is a Chicago legend, HoF'er, and put in his time as a minor league manager where he won at every level....so of course the Cubs hire Mike Quade? Seriously a horrible decision. 

I have seen the cubs have a top farm system loaded with prospects, only to see those prospects reach the majors and have no plate discipline and fizzle out within a year or two (I'm looking at you Corey Patterson and Felix Pie). I have said for many years the Cubs need a vision from the top down and the minor league system puts an emphasis on developing major league hitters. 

So imagine the happiness I have now that we have hired THE SLUMP BREAKER 

and he is rumored to be soon firing the mistake that is Mike Quade and replacing him with Ryno Sandberg. Finally a vision. Finally an opportunity. And yet again my optimism is high, maybe not for next year, but for the future. 

So bye bye Fielder! Bye bye Pujols! Diagf Grienke, Gallardo, Wainwright, and Carpenter.....THIS IS THE CUBS CENTURY, were due!

Home dogs, bye weeks, and never learning my lesson

Some people never learn their lesson. Take athletes for example. This week making headlines we have the Pats TE apologizing for taking these pics with this porn star

Hello Bibi Jones

Now i think two things when stuff like this happens

1) WGAF! Hes a pro athlete not exactly an expert on morals

2) What was he thinking? Like ok he comes out, "Bla bla bla me so sorry." 

Look buddy either you're lucky that at the age of 23/24 you are a millionaire and can bang out pron stars non stop, in which case dont f'ing apologize. Or you're an idiot for not realizing that this may get out and ruin your good guy rep. Either way i dont want to hear an apology, in fact, i kinda envy/hate you for this. It really makes you think, "What was this guy thinking?" 

Then you have guys like me, who define insane. I literally am going to go against everything i have "learned" about sports betting and go with the same old things and expect different results. 

Vegas appears to be pissed. The secret is out that some teams in the NFL just SUCK! And they are loading the lines like i have never seen them before. Some things i always look for when im cruising the lines looking for ways to burn money..... Home dogs, dont fall for the good team @ a bad team trap of betting the good team. Home field is HUGE in the NFL and anytime you can get points at home you should probably take them. Teams coming off a bye with a good head coach. 2 weeks to prepare for any team is going to give a good head coach a big edge, and an extra week of resting up the roster cant hurt either. And public money, if a high percentage of the public is betting a game and you too like that game.....fade it. Seriously, either dont bet it or bet against it and thank me later when crazy shit happens to what otherwise would have been a heartbreaker if you went with the public. This also works for overs and unders

So without further rambling, here are my week 8 picks

Philadelphia -3 @ 120 - For those of you who are just becoming degenerate @ 120 means i bought the hook. The line is/was 3.5 so i bought it down to 3 to gain that edge in case a field goal is all the Iggles win by. I think Dallas is good buttttttttt i also think Romo is more banged up than we are aware of and the Eagles should still have some great value in them b/c of that horrible start. Add to that they are at home and coming off a bye with Andy Reid and SHIP IT.

Denver +3 - Detroit is hitting the skids, Tebow and little baby Jesus are at home where they have a HUGE home field advantage....thats really all i got. I dont love love this line, but i do like that the public is very obviously betting Detroit @ 70'ish percent the last i checked and the Broncos are at home as dogs just kinda put me over the top. Tebow is going to do just enough to handcuff the Broncos organization into rolling with him before he shows his true colors and turns into a pretty good/great H-Back. It's like the final LOL_F U from Josh McDaniels. 

Pittsburgh +3 - And here is where i just ram my head into a brick wall Pt.. 1....New England is coming off a bye and has Billy B as their coach and Tom holy shit i want your life Brady at QB. But Pittsburgh's offense i coming to life and i think they are going to burn this NE D. Add to that they are at home and getting points and I'm rolling with the Steelers to stop getting owned at home by the Pats....at least this week.

Seattle +3 - Rookie QB on the road @ a hostile environment against a sneaky good D and the vaunted Home Dog edge.....seriously though LOL @ this toilet bowl

St. Louis +14 @ 120 - And part 2 of my banging of head against wall expecting different results. I WILL NOT BET AGAINST 2 TD lines!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am once again taking the 2 TD's and hoping that St Louis has a bit of pride and keeps it somewhat close at home against a Saints team that might be a little pumped from that face fucking they did to the Colts. 

After last week i am 16-6-1 on the year which is absolutely not sustainable and this might be the week where I say, "wtf was i thinking?!!?!??" after its all over with....

The good news, however, is while looking for the Granikamosky or whatever his name is pic of him and the BiBi i found this gem and figured out what he was thinking

Set, GO!

Just to make sure I have no female readers I'll post a picture of the most hated woman out there right now

Only 5 games this week. First excuse of this horrible exercise coming up.....now keep in mind we still had a winning week last week, but the games i lost i can learn 2 lessons from. 1) Don't bet on horrible teams 2) don't try to pick 10 games a week just for the sake of betting 10 games a week. I think  last week i was still high off my 7-1-1 first week and thought, "yeah, i can pick 9 or 10 games every week and rake it." So this week i picked the games i felt best about and it only came out to 5, and they are probably in the order i like them too....or close enough.

Denver +2.0 @ Miami - This feels like free money. Miami is in the driver's seat of the overused, "Suck for Luck" playoffs. They have a shit home field advantage, Matt Moore at QB, their best player, Brandon Marshall, wants Luck as much as anybody, and their coach could give two shits as his ass is grass after this season or once they've clinched Luck. Meanwhile you have Tim Tebow and baby Jesus on the Bronco's side so that's good for the win right there. 

Tampa +1 vs. Bears - I seriously hate the Bears. Jay Cutler is a loser and the one thing that pisses me off most about the Carson Palmer trade is now it vindicates the Cutler trade. I hate that teams haven't gotten the memo.....DON'T KICK TO DEVIN HESTER!!!!!!!! and  they never do what they are supposed to do. Win games against great teams and lose against shite and I feel like people are expecting them to win, and so does Vegas as they somehow made Tampa a home dog to Da' Bears! I feel like Tampa really got woken up by that Niners beat down and will play another great game at home and then Vegas will readjust. 

Jets +3 vs. SD - Another home dog? And I feel a little less sure about this one but the Jets at home in sort of a must win game for them, I'll take the 3 vs a Charger's team that hasn't had the Norv Turner letdown really yet this year.

Kansas City +3.5 @ Oakland - Ugh! I actually literally just added this game. I know, it goes against my initial, "don't bet on shit teams" statement earlier in this very blog but sometimes i just cant help myself. KC is coming off a bye, Cassel has actually been on fire, maybe they figured out what to do at RB during the bye, and Oakland is starting either Kyle f'ing Boller or a QB who was chillen on a beach for the last year or so, and the public is betting Oakland at 72%...... Ugh sign me up for the fade on public money

Panthers -2.5 vs Redskins - I think the Redskins ride is over and I hate myself for it but I am sort of on the Cam Newton bandwagon. 

Falcons + 4 @ Detroit - I'm a Niners fan. And as a Niner's fan I remember those great starts with talented teams and then the stomach punch that was Bret Favre that threw us into like an 0 - 8 skid. I'm not saying the Lions will go that path as obviously they have a much better QB and a freak of a WR that can basically win them games on their own, but I am thinking the Falcons were looking at Frank Gore's 15 rushes for 127,468 yards and salivating at the prospect of Turner doing the same thing and parlaying that into some play action confidence building passes for Matt Ryan. And for a week or 2 i think the league will adjust and the Lions, playing the hard part of their schedule, will come back to reality.

Last week - 4-4
Season - 11-5-1

Cowgirl up!

Alright, a little later than i would have liked to post these but i put it off until the last minute and then was super busy today moving into my new place....Maybe next week I will go more in depth, maybe not, either way here are the stone cold locks....bet em or fade em

Lets start off with a little MFK for the  Lock of the Week!

How can you not bet the cowboys this week?

Talent wise i dont think anybody is doubting the Cowboys. Young Oline, nice skill players, and their last 10 games have been decided by 4pts or less.
Not to mention they are going up against THE WORST pass defense in the NFL that has been torched by the jets and dolphins ffs.
AND the cowboys are coming off a bye week which means 2 weeks to prep for this game and get healthy.

Dallas +7 = ez money


Rams +15 @ GB
15? 15? After a bye that gave McDaniels a chance to gameplan for a pretty poor GB pass defense. I dont think the rams have much of a shot but 15 FUCKING POINTS????

Colts +7 @ Cinci
Did we forget that the Bengals are the Bengals? Im never EVER not taking the 7 against the Bengals

Browns +6.5 vs Raiders
At first glance i fucking loved the raiders but the more i thought about the more i leaned to the browns side. 1) if you havent noticed i love teams coming off byes. 2)the raiders always do the opposite of what they should.


Eagles - 1 @ Washington
First time all year Im thinking the Eagles will cover

Tampa Bay +6 vs NO
Coming off a big loss and now they are back home. Im willing to bet Freeman and that coach have this team ready to at the least keep it close.

Dallas ML +250
Did i mention i love this game?

Jets/Miami under 43.5

Matt Moore? Iffy RB's? Rex Ryan D? Jets Offense? I cant see any way these two teams score 20 points combined

Sorry so short but im fucking done SON

The Degenerate

Let me start off by saying......actually in my return to the degenerate blog let me start off by posting a picture of a slutty asian

This is Asa Akira and i had the pleasure of meeting her irl at the porn convention back in January 2010. She is really dominating the asian porn game right now.

Ok with that out of the way here we go with this blog.

So I am not one of the poker players who made the migration to a 3rd tier type site like Bodog, Merge, etc. A few reasons for this....

1) I am too busy to put in serious volume and risking any amount of money for such a minimal return / dealing with the headache of withdraws, or probably more accurately deposits, just isnt worth it to me.

2) If you cant trust the main sites like AP/UB or FTP how much can you really trust these lower sites?

3) A good friend of mine got burned by a less reputable site for a good sum of money

I have been coping ok without having a degenerate outlet for the past 6'ish months ever since black friday, but recently......oh man am i getting some degenerate itch!

Some old army friends and i have put pretty solid plans together for a March Madness Vegas trip. I am in a few fantasy football leagues (and just took 2nd in a baseball league), but they are not for money b/c the DOJ made it damn near impossible to arrange payments and to hold them in escrow.....although im not quite sure why we didnt just utilize paypal tbh.

Obviously a 6 months away vegas vacation and free fantasy sports are not going to satisfy my itch here though.

UGH, ok ill admit it i also recently signed up for zynga poker and am playing somewhat seriously.....fml!!!!!!!!!

But besides all of this i just recently, as in today was my first day recently, started mock sports betting. I am basically keeping track on an excel sheet the games i would bet and the outcomes of those ducktale bets. (ducktales = not real if that lost you)

At this point im sure some of my long time followers are facepalming the shit out of me, but hear me out. I have ALWAYS been a losing sports bettor. So i am trying to beat a game that is near unbeatable and then next season start small and see where i end up at this (given that i end this mock season a winner).

So without further ado, my week 5 games (i will from now on make a pre gameday post of my picks so you can follow along......

Week 5

Oakland +6 

Green Bay -5.5

Detroit -6

Bengals +3.0

Carolina + 6

NYJ +9

KC / Indy over 38.5

Cincinnati / Jags under 37

As you can see i am 6-1-1 with one more game to go

So goodbye poker blog, hello fake sports betting blog

Holy shit! Holy Shit! Holy Shit!!!!!

You know what it is by now im sure....but wtf. I dont even want to get into the rant as i cant say anything that hasnt been said already. Gl to us all and if i start playing live, or this bs gets resolved then ill start blogging again

until then

:salute:

whoda thunk it?

As posted before, March has been a pretty big downer....well shit! As i write that its happened again. I was having a ton of trouble with my HEM and so i did a whole bunch of garbage and started over just using march's hh's and thought i had resolved the problem and now.....its messing up again. I have uninstalled and reinstalled it a couple times and still....bah....annnnnnnnnnnd it worked again, so i guess we will see. Either way here is the March graph

:puke: wtf most of the downswing was at 25nl too so that makes it doubley bad. Buttttt it looks like i have righted the ship. I am like 8 buy ins below ev for the month so that doesnt help, and im getting coolered to death with kings into aces a few times, top two into bottom set a few times, and a few suckouts....but i dont think i was playing optimally either. Still have stacked some bonus money and rakeback and im up about 400 on the month which i cant really bring myself to complain about, but is def below my monthly goal.

So yeah in other who thunk it news, i learned that charmane star hasnt had any plastic surgery.....

.....weird huh?

Adios

The Sht

Twice in a day?

What can i say? Failing motivates more than succeeding does and lately all ive done at the tables is fail. I obviously put in another session and once again another 2 buy ins gone as i just got totally shit on. So i thought ok i can either take a break and come back refreshed and ready to go OR i can continue to embrace the degenerate i am and just switch games.

If you remember at the start of this stake i was playing stt's and ran hot while getting some coaching but very obviously had leaks but variance smiled on me and i had a sick roi in the 6.50's. Then i went on a bit of a downswing and took a break to play cash until i could talk with my coach.....

Except i hit the ground running in cash and just destroyed the cash games. Ive been playing and beating the games pretty good since then but now im on maybe a 10buy in downswing and am ready to switch back to some stt's. I talked to the my staker/sng coach and will be reviewing what i was doing wrong and giving stt's another run.

Im not saying that I'm done with cash or that im playing bad or anything, i just think it was a bit of a downswing and a new game and challenge will be good for me. So yeah it looks like ill take tomorrow off, talk about stt's with  barone and go crush those for awhile.

BLOG ENTRY SAVER

Burrrr its getting cold in here

As I'm finishing up my first winter in Wisconsin and things are starting to warm up outside, i see my poker graph becoming ice cold. Coolers, run bad, u name it March has not been kind. Due to some run good (or not run bad) the one day i played 50nl i am up money on the month, but am down bb's....so i guess thank god for good timing and bonuses. 

First 9k hands, not too shabby....last 7k, i want to die. I mean ffs this 25nl!!!! I should be absolutely crushing this. My BB/100 has been cut in half during this downswing and thats depressing, but i still am over 2BB/100.....and really for once i actually have it all in perspective and am not too tilty/mad at myself/life but i felt like i hadnt written a blog for awhile so yeah.

Since the stake begun the graph has been pretty sexy really and this downswing only looks so bad and affects my winrate so much because of my lack of volume

Played some mtts for the first time this stake.....that was more death as i busted with AA vs AK all in pre in one, and JJ vs A9 all in pre in another.

Ok ok /rant and ill probably even put in another session today

ive hidden my password and screenname in this post....so if it goes like it has been at the tables then whoever deciphers it first gets a free bankroll.....

GL

Reset

So after a little 4 buy in downswing at 50nl, i talked it over with my backer and we both said ok lets pull the profits off the table and start over. I got to pay off a debt i wanted to take care of he got to basically freeroll this stake as we each got about $850.

I've mostly moved back down to 25nl but took a little shot at 50nl that worked out. Since the reset ive put in about 10k hands (in 2 weeks so im really sucking with volume) but the stake is back up about 350 or 400, i cant remember where i ended today.

Per the norm im debating with myself what the best course of action is. I dont mind playing staked like i thought i would. I mean overall the stake has gone pretty smooth with very few setbacks. But i would like to get out playing on my own again. Its great that when i do it will be a total freeroll for me as i started off with 0 deposited of my own money. It is important to me that i dont go broke because i want the rest of my poker days to be a freeroll and to never redeposit again. To do this i will need to do 2 main things; 1) be a bankroll nit. I dont think i need to nit it up to the point i did when i was playing exclusively for my income but close. Id say maintaining 20+ buy ins for my level and not moving up until i have 40 for the next level is pretty conservative. 2) not be scared to move back down if my shots at higher levels dont go well.

So with that said im not sure what i want my breaking off the stake goal to be. Ive thought about 500 being the point. Thats 20 buy ins and buy that point ill have won at 25nl enough to know the risk associated with it. I think i can beat 25nl at a rate that makes the standard deviation well within the 20 buy in bankroll. But i know i wont move down to 10nl so id really prefer a 1k roll. Most likely if things go par for the course i will detach at the end of april and whatever i have over 500 will be good enough. If im still below 500, then obviously ill continue the stake if thats cool with the backer obviously.

All said 25nl is really a pretty easy level to beat and while im playing im thinking things like "meh id be cool beating this for 5-7k/year" but obviously once im on my own and stacking money ill be wanting to move up i mean afterall ive done pretty well at 50nl too. So then i think the same thing about 50nl "hey a little more variance but i can beat it at a good rate and just stick to 50nl which should be good for 7 - 10k / year." Except i know better. We are all gamblers, we all want to push our edge to the limit and i will too, after 50 ill have the same thought process for 100nl and after that 200nl....it wont stop until i dont have an edge in the games.

For now though thats all pretty far off and i have to stay focused on getting to another 1k+ in profit. And who knows maybe ill just up the stake.

You know what i was going to write about mtt's for a minute but f it, i just lost all motivation so you dont even get a thread saving asian pic

Bahahahhahahahahhahah

Ahhhhhsht

Its like HEM or PT3.....but different

Playing on a Mac can be very frustrating if you want to take your game to the highest level. There just isn't a lot poker software out there that are compatible and of great quality for Mac users. On the flip side, most pc owners have an almost unlimited amount of options for poker software and some are very strong. That means people are getting better and you aren't. 

Poker Copilot is specifically designed for Macs and is pretty solid. I've used the trial now for 20 days and there is a lot to like. I also feel my game has improved in these 20 days quite drastically. 

When you start the software it will immediately search your hard drive for any hand histories and load them into the database. After that when you fire up whatever site you play your heads up display (hud) will pop up. In the 20 or so days that I have used PokerCo the hud has worked flawlessly and although I might disagree with how some of the stats are calculated it works really well. I really wish you could leave notes on players inside the hud but I think the creator has already mentioned that he's working on this function. 

After a session you can use Poker Copilot to review your hands, especially any that at the time you were really unsure of how to handle. It has the ability to spot weaknesses and also show your strengths. Doing session reviews is really what has taken my game to a different level. Knowing what hands I'm losing most of my money on or even what position has been a tremendous help. There are also these poker leak finders that PokerCo has that can help. There is a detector that runs your preflop aggression, positional awareness, blind stealing, and your ability to play pocket pairs. I haven't spent a lot of time using these because I don't have a realistic about of hands to really test it accurately but this seems like a really cool feature. 

Lastly, I had a couple of minor issues trying to figuure out certain aspects of the functions and had to email the creator Steve. He responded within 12 hours and was extremely helpful and knowledgeable both times. 

If you play poker on a Mac Poker Copilot is a must buy. For only 69.99 you'd be foolish not to take advantage of the hud and software for session reviews. 

An old friend

Ever since ive started this stake its been for the most part pretty variance free. I had a downswing when i played like a horses ass but havent been coolered etc. I have been keeping my sessions short and just booking win after win really. But the more i win, the more volume ive been putting in....the more volume you put in, the more swings you are going to experience. Its just the standard deviation of the game. Well today, variance caught up with me. It looked something like this:

It doesnt take much imagination to figure out who represents me in this picture. I did get a bit of a reach around though as i had this one fish at one table just keep paying me off and paying me off and going out of his way to play pots vs me so it kind of cushioned the blow of AA < 10 10  in a 3bet pot, and KK into AA 3x within 500 hands. I pretty much broke even over the rest of my hands and am down an insta 4 buy ins.

And like that, even after beating 25nl for 4BB/100 over 35k'ish hands and murdering 50nl the last 2 weeks or so over about 10k hands, im doubting myself. And this is an example of the ever present fragile psyche of a poker player. Given my current situation i dont really know which way to go with this. Im still up proly 11 or 12 buy ins profit and another $100 bonus over the last two weeks at 50nl. But im not sure if playing on staked money and having to cash out/reset at the end of this month if i really want to go through these psychologically damaging swings.

This is where HEM can be so valuable a tool, it can just kinda reassure me that im not spewing, that it was just a variance, that my winrate was insane and is coming back down to earth. But after that dirty asian whore of a hacker put that virus on my laptop im still waiting for the reboot disc in the mail. So maybe ill move back down until HEM is up and running and doing its full time job of stroking my poker ego and calming my nerves.  Or maybe ill wake up refreshed tomorrow and ready to get back in the ring. But I guess for now ill just settle for this vent

and to thank you for listening

Moving on up

Trying to get my piece of the pie

So after much deliberation i decided that i have beaten 50nl over a long enough sample before and was playing good enough at 25nl that i could move up and at the least give it a 10 buy in shot. If i had

I would have cashed out the remaining profit and rebuilt at 25nl. Thankfully however it has gone pretty well since moving up to 50nl. No exact numbers due to hem still being down but im up about 16 buy ins over maybe 10k hands. I plan on cashing out back down to a certain amount to maintain an adequate bankroll for 50nl but still pay off a couple bills i need to get to. Im also sure my backer wont mind pulling some off the table. 

50nl is the first noticeable jump in skill at the micro limits imo. The fish are much more aggressive and there is a lot more 3betting pre, floating post flop, and it becomes significantly harder than at 25nl to play hands oop. The one benefit is i have been able to sniff out some of the better situations in which i can 4bet pre where at 25nl i feel like this is a bad idea to do ever. At 50nl the money is starting to sting a little, opponents are 3betting wider but also folding to a 4bet, where at 25nl they are more "oh yeah ill show you and shove my entire range" or they just dont know better. 

I realize im riding a bit of a heater and there will be some variance in the near future but what can i do. Hopefully i have HEM back shortly as i really like evaluating my sessions.

So yeah i think this stake is exceeding my expectations and that was really the goal when i set my goals so low. 

GL at the tables and watch out 100nl hopefully i will be back soon and better than ever

Virus!!!!

As I have stated in here several times i do not use a hud while i play. I suppose i should and i just might start but up to this point all i use HEM for is keeping myself in check and tracking my play. I have only put in about 30k hands so far since this stake started at 25nl and im up exactly 900 after bonus and rakeback and profit. But its still a bit frustrating that i will have to lose those 30k hands because I got a virus. Its weird cuz i havent watched much porn or downloaded anything. I did click on this link that somebody posted and i fear thats where it came from. So I am waiting for my newly reordered reboot disc to arrive and then i will reboot to new and start over with everything. The good news is i did get a picture of said hacker

That bitch! Ok shes forgiven.

Once i reboot i think ill try to stick to only using my cheap laptop for poker and school work and use this nice one for browsing, storing shit, etc.

Im having a  bit of a dilemma maybe a couple of you could comment on. As you know im being staked right now. After i hit about 3500 profit i will be able to go out on my own. Im winning at about 4BB/100 over my last 30k hands of 25nl and if i cut off this stake at 3500 profit then i will want to play 25nl. The problem is right now i think i could move up and play 50nl and proly have about the same success. But then i might have trouble readjusting to the lower stakes after this stake has ended. Also i am a bit concerned that i wont have as  good of a winrate at 50nl but that should be more than offset by the rakeback. So should i move up and then move back down after the stake? Or should i just stay focused on 25nl and beat it until i can move up on my own dime?

February hasnt been too great volume wise and sadly i have a paper to write today and a wife to appease due to it being valentines day so off i go

Gl at the tables

The journey back

Really this should be titled the journey, because 1) the journey back to where? I was never really much of an anybody to begin with and 2) as long as we play poker no matter the level of success or failure we are at at the current time, we are still on our poker journey.

So yeah, im at 25k hands now and i gotta say i think im a much better player than i was pre hiatus. I havent studied but i think i un auto piloted some things i was doing that were holding me back. Like i think my cbet flop % was much lower b4. I have never before over even this much of a sample had a positive redline like i do here. I wonder if thats the stakes im playing or that im more focused on cbetting and its showing up in that stat and my winrate? I think im paying off too light on the river sometimes but i checked my river call efficiency stat and its solid at like 1.65. I think i can do better esp at this limit as the betting on the river it is pretty obvious when im beat.

Other than that, poker wise the stake is up a really good amount given that i didnt start until 10 days or so into January. One thing bothering me is pokertableratings.com has been missing almost all my hands in February. Its weird cuz i use HEM to track my results but something about it being posted on the internet is gratifying and it satisfies the narcissist in me.

Ive been thinking about the direction of this stake and i think i just want to grind 25nl until i hit a predetermined amt of profit and then go out on my own still at 25nl and move up when i feel comfortable. You know as opposed to setting goals and such. I suppose by the end of year id like to be playing 50nl but other than that im trying not to put too much pressure on myself or raise the expectation bar to a point where i fall short and lose motivation on my first setback. For now ill say that id be happy to play 25k hands/mth and make about 500 - 750/month that i can use for my vegas vacations and family vacations. Its funny to think that last year this time i had just finished my best online month at the cash tables (8k at 100nl) and had a sick good november and december the months preceding that. Now if i can grind annual vegas vacation money ill be happy.

*blog entry saver*

Stay focused on the reasons youre playing for and gl to you all

Ahhhhhsht

I'll show you mine if you show me urs

An oldie but goodie...i remember this pic from way back when i started playing on bodog

Starting over at a level of nlhe i havent played since like 2007 has been relatively easy once i remembered and implemented the same old strat that has been beating micro limits for years now. It's a strategy i have ever so creatively titled "I'll show you mine if you show me yours". When i started playing poker i was talking it over with everybody i could find that i felt like was a winning player. One buddy of mine sarcastically said "the secret to poker is flipping over the best hand."

 I mean obviously that is easier said than done most times and there are millions of intricacies a player must learn and recognize before this becomes feasible even 50% of the time. And then there is cbetting flops, misrepresenting your draws and big made hands, evaluating board textures and opponent tendacies, and determining the best course of action once you have unscientifically evaluated all of these variables in ohhhhhhhhhhh about 5 seconds or less. 

But really on a basic level (and 50nl and below can be played on a very basic level) it is that easy....just flip over the best hand. A huge part of success in cash games especially is realizing the level your opponents are on and only trying to play one level ahead of them. If you go farther than that youre doomed to fail or at the least take on some serious and unnecessary variance. So why not just use ur skills to flip over the best hand? 

When i started back on this journey via the stake for 25nl, i started out a little more timid than i used to be. This will happen after layoff where im just not sure about things and dont want to risk marginal spots. I was playing about 13/10.5 vpip/pfr and showing down 30% winning 53% of the time i went to showdown over my first 10k hands. I literally used to make fun of guys who were this tight but getting situated and at a showdown driven game i was still winning at 2.55PTBB/100. Not too shabby tbh but not maximizing profits at this level either.

Then i went a bit wild and really opened up thinking i could "outplay all these fish" ldo. Well that combined with some run bad went HORRIBLE and i dropped 8buy ins in about 2000 hands. I reminded myself what this level was all about and its not flaunting my understanding of advanced plays or picking off bluffs, or calling light'ish to balance my/their range. Its about.....showing down the best hand! 

So i tightened up a bit but more around a less nitty range and over my last 10k'ish hands i am running 15.7/11.6 vpip/pfr and showing down only 27% of the time winning 62% of showdown pots. Im situationally running hot in that im not getting coolered at all and doing a bit of coolering, but im actually running below all in ev and maintaining (i know its a small sample but its all i got for now) a staggering 9.15PTBB/100. 

I know these numbers are lol in the sample size department but they are at least a foundation of proof that at the  lower limits its not what you know, but what you show

Gl all

Oh yeah...about that

the whole poker being easy thing.....what i meant was poker is as easy as you make it. Ok so i started out crushing sngs mostly out of luck on this stake. Then i moved to my cash cow that is fr nlhe and made a few mistakes just overestimating my opponents and over thinking simple abc pitch and catch 25nl. Then i buckled down and played good/ran good for a few k hands and thennnnnnn my head got inflated and i started trying to create spots, and in the matter of 2-3k hands this happened

Ok yeah whatever i ran a little below ev....and yeahhhhhhhh there were some obv coolers in there i can remember two set over set and two top 2 vs bottom sets bla bla bla. But when i looked at my vpip and pfr i noticed they had jumped drastically. I was running about where i would run at 100nl and 200nl and honestly thats just not profitable in this showdown driven stack off light game that is 25nl. And the worst part is, thats 100% on me.

As you can see towards the end of my fun times i started to tighten back up and let the spots come to me. Even at 100nl and 200nl i can say that if you try to push the spots ur variance will increase, but your winrate will too. At 25nl and 50nl its better to just let the spots come to you and remember "if you play it, the spots will come" (omg what a horrible lame field of dreams reference but im leaving it so i can move into these inspiring baseball pics)

as always gl at the tables

Mr. Sht